« The intro to the series.
The climate crisis presents itself as a formidable foe, yet its true dimensions remain shrouded in mystery. To understand the magnitude of the challenge we face, we must consider the cumulative impact of our actions, as CO2e is often calculated on an annual basis. However, since the effects of climate action can take time to materialize, a long-term perspective is essential.
I created a model to determine how many gigatons of carbon we need to remove to reach net zero by 2050. While some models calculate the target for 2100, that seems too far off for me—predicting the global economy even 10 years from now is difficult, so going beyond 2050 feels overly theoretical.
For reference - currently, global CO2e emissions are around 50 gigatons per year.
The answer is approximately 900 gigatons of CO2e. So, we're up against a 900-gigaton enemy, the Climate Kraken. Visualizing the enormity of this challenge can be unnerving, and indeed, delving into climate numbers has cost me many nights of sleep.
But what does 900 gigatons even mean? It represents a cumulative gap—we need to reduce our carbon footprint every year, and over the next 26.5 years, that amounts to 900 gigatons of reduced emissions or removed carbon.
How much is a gigaton? Mount Everest, the world's tallest peak, has an estimated mass of 160 gigatons. Yet even this comparison falls short, for to confront the 900-gigaton Kraken, we must imagine not one Everest but 6. The Statue of Liberty, that iconic symbol of freedom, serves as another point of reference: a staggering 4.4 million of these towering monuments would be required to equal a single gigaton.
To bring this abstract figure to life, I enlisted the help of the creative AI-minds at Midjourney to visualize our Climate Kraken:
(Check out this Twitter thread of my Kraken visualization options and vote for your favourite).
I've spent quite a bit of time (read: too much time) on Midjourney, working on the visualizations for this series. I'd love for you to help me choose the most fitting image for the Climate Kraken. Check out the Twitter poll and cast your vote for your favorite representation of this colossal challenge!
Back to the 900 gigaton comparisons. A typical forest can sequester CO2 from the air and store physical carbon (C) in trees, at a rate of about 10 tons per year per hectare. To sequester one gigaton of carbon, we would need a land area 4.5 times larger than the United Kingdom, covered entirely with trees, all working to store carbon for an entire year.
Knowing that our enemy weighs in at 900 gigatons provides some peace of mind—at least now we know its size. To be methodologically accurate, nobody knows the precise number because it depends on factors like population growth, climate change's impact on emissions, and more. So I compared many different research papers and took a number in the middle of the range.
Next up: If we are to confront a 900-gigaton Climate Kraken, we require superheroes. Find out exactly who we are going to call in the next part of the series tomorrow.
» Part 2. Identifying the Battlegrounds: Five Fronts in the Climate War
The comparisons between England and the Statue of Liberty were a bit distant to me. I compared it with existing forests, and it seems that we need about 20 times more forests.
If we assume an average sequestration rate of 10 metric tons of CO2 per hectare per year, then to sequester 900 gigatons of CO2, we would need 90 billion hectares (900 gigatons / 10 metric tons per hectare per year).
This estimate is significantly larger than the current global forest area of around 4.06 billion hectares. As 31% of the Earth's surface is already covered with forests, unfortunately, 20 times more forest cannot fit. We need to come up with some other solutions.
The forest land area in Estonia is approximately 2.32 million hectares (approximately 52%).