3. A 900-Gigaton Battle Plan

« Part 2. Identifying the Battlegrounds

By now we have met the 900-gigaton Climate Kraken and also the superheroes who could be helping us to fight Kraken. But not all superheroes are equal and neither is their strength. It is very clear that no hero can win this gargantuan fight alone. But how much could each hero contribute?

Devising an appropriate plan to tackle the 900-gigaton challenge is no simple feat. Accusations and judgments abound, and opinions on how to reach net zero are as diverse as the ecosystems we're striving to protect.

I took on the role of an outsider, becoming the Head of Climate for PEaH (Planet Earth and Humankind). 

To create a model that determined each superhero's potential contribution, I took into account factors like cost and feasibility. While wind and solar energy are among the most capable tools for our superheroes, as the share of wind and solar energy in the grid increases, it can lead to higher costs and challenges.

Consider a concrete example: as the share of wind energy increases and suitable onshore locations become scarce, developers may need to transition to offshore projects. Offshore wind energy can be more expensive than onshore, with costs ranging from $2.5 to $4 million per installed MW, compared to $1.3 to $1.7 million for onshore projects. This cost increase is due to more complex construction, higher installation costs, increased maintenance costs, and longer transmission distances required for offshore wind farms.

Similarly, when wind and solar energy account for a significant portion of the grid's energy supply, more backup capacity or energy storage is required to ensure reliable electricity when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing. This additional requirement can result in increased costs. In order to strike the right balance, it's crucial to weigh the costs of implementing each solution against the potential emission reductions when determining the most effective battle plan.

Here's a visual representation of how each group might contribute to the battle against the 900-gigaton Climate Kraken:

Click here to use this chart as an interactive visualisation. 

Some of these results may surprise you.

1. Clean Energy Transition: 340 GtCO2e target. Electric cars get a lot of attention (cue Tesla), but they could only muster 40 GT. Wind and solar power, on the other hand, could each contribute 100 GT if executed correctly. Nuclear energy has the potential to add another 100 GT, but considering recent events in Germany, I've included only 30 GT in my model.

   

2. Industry and infrastructure transformation: 200 GtCO2e target. This group has numerous compelling areas; better construction and management of buildings alone could achieve a 50 GT impact. However, it might surprise many that the energy transition holds greater potential than industry reform.

   

3. Nature-based solutions: 215 GtCO2e target. This second-largest group can help fight the Climate Kraken. Historically, humans have exploited nature for their benefit. We must now change this mindset and harness nature to support the climate fight. Forests alone could contribute 130 GT, but this requires intelligent use of technology and data for better management.

   

4. Carbon removal technologies: 50 GtCO2e. This rapidly growing field is attracting many investors. Technologies such as Direct Air Capture (DAC) can capture carbon from the air and convert it into minerals, where it remains stored for centuries. However, DAC is still in its infancy and can only provide 0.06 GT per year by 2030, according to the IEA. Despite being the smallest superhero, this group holds promise through ongoing research and innovative solutions - ocean based solutions and enhanced weathering show big promise.

   

5. Behavior changes: 90 GtCO2e target. Everyone can contribute to the climate fight through actions such as adopting plant-based diets, reducing food waste, and conserving energy. Realistically, this group can account for around 10% of the effort against the Climate Kraken; we still need the support of other superheroes.

   

The battle plan is formed, but how much will this battle cost? In the next part, we will delve into the costs associated with each subgroup, further illuminating the path to victory over the Climate Kraken.

» 4. The Price of the Victory: 50 trillion dollars